Click on the tabs below to access the analysis and data featured, and here to read more about sources.
Our own risk analysis, presented on the map below, finds that {{descriptionInfo.debt_crisis_countries_num}} countries across the world are suffering from a debt crisis. In addition, there are {{descriptionInfo.private_debt_crisis_risk_countries_num}} countries at risk of a private sector debt crisis, {{descriptionInfo.public_debt_crisis_risk_countries_num}} countries at risk of a public sector debt crisis, and {{descriptionInfo.both_debt_crisis_risk_countries_num}} at risk from both a private and public debt crisis. Read more about this analysis here.
One of the best guides to a government debt burden is the value of debt payments which leave the country each year compared to the government’s revenue. Countries in the global south spent an average {{descriptionInfo.gov_revenue_spent_percent}} of government revenue on foreign debt payments in {{descriptionInfo.gov_revenue_spent_year}}, an increase from {{descriptionInfo.gov_revenue_spent_increase_percent}} in 2010. Click here to see a chart showing debt payments as a percentage of revenue.
To get a true sense of what is happening with global debt, explore the six categories on the map below. Click on a country to get more detailed information about its debt situation.
(Data in map last updated on {{descriptionInfo.last_updated}})
A debt crisis is where debt payments undermine a country’s economy and/or the ability of its government to protect the basic economic and social rights of its citizens. Debt crises can be caused by debt owed by governments, or by debts owed by the private sector, ie, businesses, banks and households. Private debt can lead to a financial crisis, which then passes debt on to the public. Our analysis identifies countries at risk of a debt crisis caused by public debt, those at risk from private debt, and those at risk from both.
You can read more detail about our analysis and methodology in the ‘Our risk Analysis’ section.
The debt risks analysis undertaken by the IMF rates the likelihood that a government will not be able to pay its external debt. It takes no account of the impact of paying the debt on the economy of a country, or on the ability of its government to protect the economic and social rights of citizens. The IMF analysis is only conducted for around 70 of the poorest countries.
The category ‘In debt distress’ means a government has stopped paying external debt. The analysis then identifies countries at high, moderate and low risk of stopping paying. IMF analyses are on average updated every 1-2 years. However, governments can block them from being published, in which case the ‘old’ analysis remains the only rating publicly available.
These figures show the amount a government is spending on debt payments (principal and interest) which leave the country, as a percentage of government revenue. They are a much better guide to debt burdens than government debt as a percentage of GDP, as they take into account interest rates on the debt, the amount of government revenue available to pay the debt, and whether the payments leave the country.
Debt Justice research has found that when external debt payments exceed 15% of government revenue, this tends to lead to a decline in government spending. The IMF says that external government debt payments of over 14-23% of revenue for low and lower-middle income countries indicates a reasonable chance a government will default on the debt.
These figures show the debt owed by the whole country (government debt and private sector debt) compared to the debt owed to that country (owed to both the government and private sector). A negative figure shows that the country owes more than it is owed (ie, it is a net debtor), and a positive figure shows that it is owed more than it owes (ie, it is a net creditor).
A large negative figure shows a large financial imbalance with the rest of the world, which carries with it a greater risk of financial crisis. But large net creditors are just as responsible for financial crises as debtors. If a country is owed a lot more than it owes, that means countries elsewhere in the world will have to be in debt – a country cannot owe debt to Jupiter!
These figures show the debt owed by the private sector of a country (businesses, banks and households) to lenders outside the country concerned, as a proportion of the GDP of that country. Debt owed by the private sector has often been responsible for debt crises, such as the East Asian Financial Crisis of the late-1990s, or the Global Financial Crisis from 2008.
Overall, private debts can often be higher than debt owed by the government, especially in richer countries. In many poorer countries the data on private debt is very patchy, so actual levels could be a lot higher than shown here.
A country’s current account balance measures how much a country (the government and private sector) is paying to and earning from the rest of the world. A country spending more than it is earning has a negative figure, and positive is vice versa. If a country has a negative current account balance, this must be paid for, for instance by borrowing from or selling off assets to people elsewhere in the world.
As with the net creditor / debtor figures, the current account balance covers the whole country – the government and the private sector.
Click on a country to see a more detailed profile.
Country | JDC Risk ({{settings.default_year_jdc_risk}}) | IMF Risk ({{settings.default_year_imf_risk}}) | Government external debt payments ({{settings.default_year_gov_debt_payments}}) | Net creditor / debtor ({{settings.default_year_net_creditor_debtor}}) | Private external debt ({{settings.default_year_private_external_debt}}) | Current account balance ({{settings.default_year_current_account_balance}}) |
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